Chart of the Day: Preview Next Move in Oil – Where’s All That Russian Oil Going?

Right Wire Report Header

The EU has placed embargoes on the import by the sea of almost all Russian crude oil imports, and since 5 February, refined oil imports are also included. At the same time, the EU and G7 alliance, complemented by Norway, has introduced a price cap that domestic shipping and insurance services must respect when transporting Russian produce. Consequently, the trade of Russian oil is rapidly changing.

The below chart shows (learn more here) the 4-week moving average exports of Russian crude oil for 2021, 2022, and 2023. All oil leaving Russian ports are included, no matter the destination. Numbers are aggregated according to the departure date of the tankers. Notice that 2023 does not seem to be hurt by the sanctions being imposed on Russia.

The chart below shows an aggregation of monthly numbers by destination of imported Russian oil. EU countries are in various shades of blue (decomposed by region) and have primarily ceased imports of Russian oil following the embargo. The interesting point here is that though the EU sanctions have stopped the flow of oil to the EU, they have been replaced by non-EU and non-G7 countries.

Meanwhile, Russia has committed to a unilateral output cut as part of an agreement by OPEC+ and the Saudis – see here. In short, Russia has been relatively successful in finding new customers for its oil and is participating well with its BRIC partners to obtain hard currency and control global oil prices.

Along with the reality of the mostly failure of the Russian oil sanctions, successful OPEC+ control of the oil markets, and the new realities from the Pentagon leaker that Ukraine may be losing the war – where will oil prices go from here?

Recently, the oil price looks like it broke resistance at the $82 level and should get traders to pile into a move higher to about the $92 level. From here, it could take two paths depending on how the Ukraine war situation develops.

  • Option A – says the Ukraine war continues, more sanctions with more restrictions on supply. The continued war will cause global growth to falter and cause central bankers to provide more inflationary stimulus fueling the commodity bubble more. In this case, oil prices may even go past the $92 area.
  • Option B – says the Ukraine war ends, with the West that tries to save face in another Agansitan-like debacle. In this scenario, it will be taken positively by the markets. Oil supplies will begin to flow again and stabilize markets. Oil prices may also stabilize in this situation.

By Tom Williams

See more Chart of the Day posts

Right Wire Report
Right Wire Reporthttps://rightwirereport.com/
Right Wire Report was a group of concerned citizens who took action to promote traditional values and work for a better America.

Columns

Viewers like you

There is no constitutional authority for any spending on public broadcasting – period. Any questions: See Article 1, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution.

Trans-wormal

No worm ever said "I am anthropomorphizing, I am a butterfly" to a toad or flock of geese and expected acknowledgement and support.

In Greenland’s Icy Capital, Past Troubles Haunt Hopes for the Future

As geopolitical realities and ongoing economic growth raise the stakes, U.S. interest in Greenland and the dream of independence may change things in a big way.

How a Chinese Government Statistician Was Forced to Report Fake Data

Chinese local govt employee produced a non-authorized report on bees and was visited by police and threatened with being sent to a mental hospital.

‘This One Time, at Groomer Camp’

All Camp Brave Trails programs focus on helping LGBTQ+ youth find what they need most to thrive: their people, their place, and their passion.

News

Kilmar Abrego Garcia Returns to US to Face Criminal Charges

Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a citizen of El Salvador, is on his way back to the US, where he will face criminal charges for allegedly smuggling illegal immigrants.

White House Adviser Gives Update on DOGE’s Future Amid Musk–Trump Spat

A top White House adviser said DOGE’s work will likely continue amid a spat between its former chief, Elon Musk, and President Donald Trump.

Trump Administration Asks Supreme Court to Allow Dismantling of Education Department

Trump admin asked Supreme Court to allow it to resume dismantling U.S. Dept of Education, following a lower court’s previous order halting process.

FTC Warns of Rising Student Loan Scams, Says Fraudsters Took Millions From Borrowers

FTC is warning borrowers to steer clear of student loan debt-relief scams, after shutting down group of companies that allegedly charged millions in illegal fees and left customers worse off.

Walmart’s Drone Delivery Coming to 5 More US Cities

Walmart is set to launch its drone delivery service in five more U.S. cities: Atlanta, Charlotte, Houston, Orlando, and Tampa, the company.

Court Orders Trump Administration to Restore AmeriCorps Funding to States

Federal court ordered Trump admin to restore AmeriCorps funding to states. The ruling comes as part of a lawsuit filed by 24 states and DC.

Tax Deductions You Can Take Without Itemizing

It’s not always beneficial to itemize. With IRS’s current standard deduction for 2025 most Americans who can’t itemize go with standard deduction.

US Economy Adds 139,000 New Jobs in May, Topping Market Forecasts

U.S. economy added 139,000 new jobs last month, surpassing economists’ expectations and indicating U.S. labor market remains in a robust position.
spot_img

Related Articles