Surging demand poses a risk to the electrical grid over the next decade.
More than 50 percent of North America is facing a serious risk of an energy shortfall in the coming years amid the retirement of thermal plants and the addition of renewable energy sources, according to new data released by the non-profit North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC).
Most of the American bulk power systems (BPS) face “mounting resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years as surging demand growth continues and thermal generators announce plans for retirement,” states the Dec. 17 report from the organization. New solar and hybrid energy resources are being added to the supply mix, but they are not being completed at a fast enough pace to meet the ever-increasing demand.
“The performance of these replacement resources is more variable and weather-dependent than the generators they are replacing,” the report reads.
“As a result, less overall capacity (dispatchable capacity in particular) is being added to the system than what was projected and needed to meet future demand.”
NERC is a regulatory authority that seeks to ensure the security and reliability of North America’s bulk power system.
The organization called natural gas-fired generators vital for the network. They are a flexible supply source that offers dispatchable electricity supply during the winter season and during times when solar and wind generation are incapable of meeting demand.
However, over the past seven years, natural gas pipeline capacity additions have trended downward.
“Some areas could experience insufficient pipeline capacity for electric generation during peak periods,” NERC stated.
The demand growth for electricity is higher now than at any time over the past couple decades, according to the report.
The rapid addition of data centers, including those for crypto and artificial intelligence, to the electrical grids presents a great challenge for planners, and the ongoing adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps is substantially increasing demand on the grids.
NERC projected peak demand in assessed areas to rise by 15 percent over the 10-year period, with winter demand estimated to jump by 18 percent.
The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region, which covers multiple states, including Arkansas, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Louisiana, was deemed to be the most vulnerable to electricity disruptions, per the new NERC assessment.
