The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election

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Left-wing activists, big tech and business titans came together to mastermind the 2020 Presidential Election and they tell us, in detail, how they did it. The question is “do all votes count” or “do all legal votes count”. For them, the end justifies the means and truth bears little on the outcome.

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The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election

A weird thing happened right after the Nov. 3 election: nothing.

The nation was braced for chaos. Liberal groups had vowed to take to the streets, planning hundreds of protests across the country. Right-wing militias were girding for battle. In a poll before Election Day, 75% of Americans voiced concern about violence.

Instead, an eerie quiet descended. As President Trump refused to concede, the response was not mass action but crickets. When media organizations called the race for Joe Biden on Nov. 7, jubilation broke out instead, as people thronged cities across the U.S. to celebrate the democratic process that resulted in Trumpโ€™s ouster.

A second odd thing happened amid Trumpโ€™s attempts to reverse the result: corporate America turned on him. Hundreds of major business leaders, many of whom had backed Trumpโ€™s candidacy and supported his policies, called on him to concede. To the President, something felt amiss. โ€œIt was all very, very strange,โ€ Trump said on Dec. 2. โ€œWithin days after the election, we witnessed an orchestrated effort to anoint the winner, even while many key states were still being counted.โ€

In a way, Trump was right.

There was a conspiracy unfolding behind the scenes, one that both curtailed the protests and coordinated the resistance from CEOs. Both surprises were the result of an informal alliance between left-wing activists and business titans. The pact was formalized in a terse, little-noticed joint statement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and AFL-CIO published on Election Day. Both sides would come to see it as a sort of implicit bargainโ€“inspired by the summerโ€™s massive, sometimes destructive racial-justice protestsโ€“in which the forces of labor came together with the forces of capital to keep the peace and oppose Trumpโ€™s assault on democracy.

The handshake between business and labor was just one component of a vast, cross-partisan campaign to protect the electionโ€“an extraordinary shadow effort dedicated not to winning the vote but to ensuring it would be free and fair, credible and uncorrupted. For more than a year, a loosely organized coalition of operatives scrambled to shore up Americaโ€™s institutions as they came under simultaneous attack from a remorseless pandemic and an autocratically inclined President. Though much of this activity took place on the left, it was separate from the Biden campaign and crossed ideological lines, with crucial contributions by nonpartisan and conservative actors. The scenario the shadow campaigners were desperate to stop was not a Trump victory. It was an election so calamitous that no result could be discerned at all, a failure of the central act of democratic self-governance that has been a hallmark of America since its founding.

Their work touched every aspect of the election. They got states to change voting systems and laws and helped secure hundreds of millions in public and private funding. They fended off voter-suppression lawsuits, recruited armies of poll workers and got millions of people to vote by mail for the first time. They successfully pressured social media companies to take a harder line against disinformation and used data-driven strategies to fight viral smears. They executed national public-awareness campaigns that helped Americans understand how the vote count would unfold over days or weeks, preventing Trumpโ€™s conspiracy theories and false claims of victory from getting more traction. After Election Day, they monitored every pressure point to ensure that Trump could not overturn the result. โ€œThe untold story of the election is the thousands of people of both parties who accomplished the triumph of American democracy at its very foundation,โ€ says Norm Eisen, a prominent lawyer and former Obama Administration official who recruited Republicans and Democrats to the board of the Voter Protection Program.

For Trump and his allies were running their own campaign to spoil the election. The President spent months insisting that mail ballots were a Democratic plot and the election would be โ€œrigged.โ€ His henchmen at the state level sought to block their use, while his lawyers brought dozens of spurious suits to make it more difficult to voteโ€“an intensification of the GOPโ€™s legacy of suppressive tactics. Before the election, Trump plotted to block a legitimate vote count. And he spent the months following Nov. 3 trying to steal the election heโ€™d lostโ€“with lawsuits and conspiracy theories, pressure on state and local officials, and finally summoning his army of supporters to the Jan. 6 rally that ended in deadly violence at the Capitol.

The democracy campaigners watched with alarm. โ€œEvery week, we felt like we were in a struggle to try to pull off this election without the country going through a real dangerous moment of unraveling,โ€ says former GOP Representative Zach Wamp, a Trump supporter who helped coordinate a bipartisan election-protection council. โ€œWe can look back and say this thing went pretty well, but it was not at all clear in September and October that that was going to be the case.โ€

This is the inside story of the conspiracy to save the 2020 election, based on access to the groupโ€™s inner workings, never-before-seen documents and interviews with dozens of those involved from across the political spectrum. It is the story of an unprecedented, creative and determined campaign whose success also reveals how close the nation came to disaster. โ€œEvery attempt to interfere with the proper outcome of the election was defeated,โ€ says Ian Bassin, co-founder of Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan rule-of-law advocacy group. โ€œBut itโ€™s massively important for the country to understand that it didnโ€™t happen accidentally. The system didnโ€™t work magically. Democracy is not self-executing.โ€

Thatโ€™s why the participants want the secret history of the 2020 election told, even though it sounds like a paranoid fever dreamโ€“a well-funded cabal of powerful people, ranging across industries and ideologies, working together behind the scenes to influence perceptions, change rules and laws, steer media coverage and control the flow of information. They were not rigging the election; they were fortifying it. And they believe the public needs to understand the systemโ€™s fragility in order to ensure that democracy in America endures.

THE ARCHITECT

Sometime in the fall of 2019, Mike Podhorzer became convinced the election was headed for disasterโ€“and determined to protect it.

This was not his usual purview. For nearly a quarter-century, Podhorzer, senior adviser to the president of the AFL-CIO, the nationโ€™s largest union federation, has marshaled the latest tactics and data to help its favored candidates win elections. Unassuming and professorial, he isnโ€™t the sort of hair-gelled โ€œpolitical strategistโ€ who shows up on cable news. Among Democratic insiders, heโ€™s known as the wizard behind some of the biggest advances in political technology in recent decades. A group of liberal strategists he brought together in the early 2000s led to the creation of the Analyst Institute, a secretive firm that applies scientific methods to political campaigns. He was also involved in the founding of Catalist, the flagship progressive data company.

The endless chatter in Washington about โ€œpolitical strategy,โ€ Podhorzer believes, has little to do with how change really gets made. โ€œMy basic take on politics is that itโ€™s all pretty obvious if you donโ€™t overthink it or swallow the prevailing frameworks whole,โ€ he once wrote. โ€œAfter that, just relentlessly identify your assumptions and challenge them.โ€ Podhorzer applies that approach to everything: when he coached his now adult sonโ€™s Little League team in the D.C. suburbs, he trained the boys not to swing at most pitchesโ€“a tactic that infuriated both their and their opponentsโ€™ parents, but won the team a series of championships.

Trumpโ€™s election in 2016โ€“credited in part to his unusual strength among the sort of blue collar white voters who once dominated the AFL-CIOโ€“prompted Podhorzer to question his assumptions about voter behavior. He began circulating weekly number-crunching memos to a small circle of allies and hosting strategy sessions in D.C. But when he began to worry about the election itself, he didnโ€™t want to seem paranoid. It was only after months of research that he introduced his concerns in his newsletter in October 2019. The usual tools of data, analytics and polling would not be sufficient in a situation where the President himself was trying to disrupt the election, he wrote. โ€œMost of our planning takes us through Election Day,โ€ he noted. โ€œBut, we are not prepared for the two most likely outcomesโ€โ€“Trump losing and refusing to concede, and Trump winning the Electoral College (despite losing the popular vote) by corrupting the voting process in key states. โ€œWe desperately need to systematically โ€˜red-teamโ€™ this election so that we can anticipate and plan for the worst we know will be coming our way.โ€

It turned out Podhorzer wasnโ€™t the only one thinking in these terms. He began to hear from others eager to join forces. The Fight Back Table, a coalition of โ€œresistanceโ€ organizations, had begun scenario-planning around the potential for a contested election, gathering liberal activists at the local and national level into what they called the Democracy Defense Coalition. Voting-rights and civil rights organizations were raising alarms. A group of former elected officials was researching emergency powers they feared Trump might exploit. Protect Democracy was assembling a bipartisan election-crisis task force. โ€œIt turned out that once you said it out loud, people agreed,โ€ Podhorzer says, โ€œand it started building momentum.โ€

He spent months pondering scenarios and talking to experts. It wasnโ€™t hard to find liberals who saw Trump as a dangerous dictator, but Podhorzer was careful to steer clear of hysteria. What he wanted to know was not how American democracy was dying but how it might be kept alive. The chief difference between the U.S. and countries that lost their grip on democracy, he concluded, was that Americaโ€™s decentralized election system couldnโ€™t be rigged in one fell swoop. That presented an opportunity to shore it up.

THE ALLIANCE

On March 3, Podhorzer drafted a three-page confidential memo titled โ€œThreats to the 2020 Election.โ€ โ€œTrump has made it clear that this will not be a fair election, and that he will reject anything but his own re-election as โ€˜fakeโ€™ and rigged,โ€ he wrote. โ€œOn Nov. 3, should the media report otherwise, he will use the right-wing information system to establish his narrative and incite his supporters to protest.โ€ The memo laid out four categories of challenges: attacks on voters, attacks on election administration, attacks on Trumpโ€™s political opponents and โ€œefforts to reverse the results of the election.โ€

Then COVID-19 erupted at the height of the primary-election season. Normal methods of voting were no longer safe for voters or the mostly elderly volunteers who normally staff polling places. But political disagreements, intensified by Trumpโ€™s crusade against mail voting, prevented some states from making it easier to vote absentee and for jurisdictions to count those votes in a timely manner. Chaos ensued. Ohio shut down in-person voting for its primary, leading to minuscule turnout. A poll-worker shortage in Milwaukeeโ€“where Wisconsinโ€™s heavily Democratic Black population is concentratedโ€“left just five open polling places, down from 182. In New York, vote counting took more than a month.

Suddenly, the potential for a November meltdown was obvious. In his apartment in the D.C. suburbs, Podhorzer began working from his laptop at his kitchen table, holding back-to-back Zoom meetings for hours a day with his network of contacts across the progressive universe: the labor movement; the institutional left, like Planned Parenthood and Greenpeace; resistance groups like Indivisible and MoveOn; progressive data geeks and strategists, representatives of donors and foundations, state-level grassroots organizers, racial-justice activists and others.

In April, Podhorzer began hosting a weekly 2ยฝ-hour Zoom. It was structured around a series of rapid-fire five-minute presentations on everything from which ads were working to messaging to legal strategy. The invitation-only gatherings soon attracted hundreds, creating a rare shared base of knowledge for the fractious progressive movement. โ€œAt the risk of talking trash about the left, thereโ€™s not a lot of good information sharing,โ€ says Anat Shenker-Osorio, a close Podhorzer friend whose poll-tested messaging guidance shaped the groupโ€™s approach. โ€œThereโ€™s a lot of not-invented-here syndrome, where people wonโ€™t consider a good idea if they didnโ€™t come up with it.โ€

The meetings became the galactic center for a constellation of operatives across the left who shared overlapping goals but didnโ€™t usually work in concert. The group had no name, no leaders and no hierarchy, but it kept the disparate actors in sync. โ€œPod played a critical behind-the-scenes role in keeping different pieces of the movement infrastructure in communication and aligned,โ€ says Maurice Mitchell, national director of the Working Families Party. โ€œYou have the litigation space, the organizing space, the political people just focused on the W, and their strategies arenโ€™t always aligned. He allowed this ecosystem to work together.โ€

Protecting the election would require an effort of unprecedented scale. As 2020 progressed, it stretched to Congress, Silicon Valley and the nationโ€™s statehouses. It drew energy from the summerโ€™s racial-justice protests, many of whose leaders were a key part of the liberal alliance. And eventually it reached across the aisle, into the world of Trump-skeptical Republicans appalled by his attacks on democracy.

SECURING THE VOTE

The first task was overhauling Americaโ€™s balky election infrastructureโ€“in the middle of a pandemic. For the thousands of local, mostly nonpartisan officials who administer elections, the most urgent need was money. They needed protective equipment like masks, gloves and hand sanitizer. They needed to pay for postcards letting people know they could vote absenteeโ€“or, in some states, to mail ballots to every voter. They needed additional staff and scanners to process ballots.

In March, activists appealed to Congress to steer COVID relief money to election administration. Led by the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, more than 150 organizations signed a letter to every member of Congress seeking $2 billion in election funding. It was somewhat successful: the CARES Act, passed later that month, contained $400 million in grants to state election administrators. But the next tranche of relief funding didnโ€™t add to that number. It wasnโ€™t going to be enough.

Private philanthropy stepped into the breach. An assortment of foundations contributed tens of millions in election-administration funding. The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative chipped in $300 million. โ€œIt was a failure at the federal level that 2,500 local election officials were forced to apply for philanthropic grants to fill their needs,โ€ says Amber McReynolds, a former Denver election official who heads the nonpartisan National Vote at Home Institute.

McReynoldsโ€™ two-year-old organization became a clearinghouse for a nation struggling to adapt. The institute gave secretaries of state from both parties technical advice on everything from which vendors to use to how to locate drop boxes. Local officials are the most trusted sources of election information, but few can afford a press secretary, so the institute distributed communications tool kits. In a presentation to Podhorzerโ€™s group, McReynolds detailed the importance of absentee ballots for shortening lines at polling places and preventing an election crisis.

The instituteโ€™s work helped 37 states and D.C. bolster mail voting. But it wouldnโ€™t be worth much if people didnโ€™t take advantage. Part of the challenge was logistical: each state has different rules for when and how ballots should be requested and returned. The Voter Participation Center, which in a normal year would have deployed canvassers door-to-door to get out the vote, instead conducted focus groups in April and May to find out what would get people to vote by mail. In August and September, it sent ballot applications to 15 million people in key states, 4.6 million of whom returned them. In mailings and digital ads, the group urged people not to wait for Election Day. โ€œAll the work we have done for 17 years was built for this moment of bringing democracy to peopleโ€™s doorsteps,โ€ says Tom Lopach, the centerโ€™s CEO.

The effort had to overcome heightened skepticism in some communities. Many Black voters preferred to exercise their franchise in person or didnโ€™t trust the mail. National civil rights groups worked with local organizations to get the word out that this was the best way to ensure oneโ€™s vote was counted. In Philadelphia, for example, advocates distributed โ€œvoting safety kitsโ€ containing masks, hand sanitizer and informational brochures. โ€œWe had to get the message out that this is safe, reliable, and you can trust it,โ€ says Hannah Fried of All Voting Is Local.

At the same time, Democratic lawyers battled a historic tide of pre-election litigation. The pandemic intensified the partiesโ€™ usual tangling in the courts. But the lawyers noticed something else as well. โ€œThe litigation brought by the Trump campaign, of a piece with the broader campaign to sow doubt about mail voting, was making novel claims and using theories no court has ever accepted,โ€ says Wendy Weiser, a voting-rights expert at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU. โ€œThey read more like lawsuits designed to send a message rather than achieve a legal outcome.โ€

In the end, nearly half the electorate cast ballots by mail in 2020, practically a revolution in how people vote. About a quarter voted early in person. Only a quarter of voters cast their ballots the traditional way: in person on Election Day.

THE DISINFORMATION DEFENSE

Bad actors spreading false information is nothing new. For decades, campaigns have grappled with everything from anonymous calls claiming the election has been rescheduled to fliers spreading nasty smears about candidatesโ€™ families. But Trumpโ€™s lies and conspiracy theories, the viral force of social media and the involvement of foreign meddlers made disinformation a broader, deeper threat to the 2020 vote.

Laura Quinn, a veteran progressive operative who co-founded Catalist, began studying this problem a few years ago. She piloted a nameless, secret project, which she has never before publicly discussed, that tracked disinformation online and tried to figure out how to combat it. One component was tracking dangerous lies that might otherwise spread unnoticed. Researchers then provided information to campaigners or the media to track down the sources and expose them.

The most important takeaway from Quinnโ€™s research, however, was that engaging with toxic content only made it worse. โ€œWhen you get attacked, the instinct is to push back, call it out, say, โ€˜This isnโ€™t true,’โ€ Quinn says. โ€œBut the more engagement something gets, the more the platforms boost it. The algorithm reads that as, โ€˜Oh, this is popular; people want more of it.’โ€

The solution, she concluded, was to pressure platforms to enforce their rules, both by removing content or accounts that spread disinformation and by more aggressively policing it in the first place. โ€œThe platforms have policies against certain types of malign behavior, but they havenโ€™t been enforcing them,โ€ she says.

Quinnโ€™s research gave ammunition to advocates pushing social media platforms to take a harder line. In November 2019, Mark Zuckerberg invited nine civil rights leaders to dinner at his home, where they warned him about the danger of the election-related falsehoods that were already spreading unchecked. โ€œIt took pushing, urging, conversations, brainstorming, all of that to get to a place where we ended up with more rigorous rules and enforcement,โ€ says Vanita Gupta, president and CEO of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, who attended the dinner and also met with Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and others. (Gupta has been nominated for Associate Attorney General by President Biden.) โ€œIt was a struggle, but we got to the point where they understood the problem. Was it enough? Probably not. Was it later than we wanted? Yes. But it was really important, given the level of official disinformation, that they had those rules in place and were tagging things and taking them down.โ€

SPREADING THE WORD

Beyond battling bad information, there was a need to explain a rapidly changing election process. It was crucial for voters to understand that despite what Trump was saying, mail-in votes werenโ€™t susceptible to fraud and that it would be normal if some states werenโ€™t finished counting votes on election night.

Dick Gephardt, the Democratic former House leader turned high-powered lobbyist, spearheaded one coalition. โ€œWe wanted to get a really bipartisan group of former elected officials, Cabinet secretaries, military leaders and so on, aimed mainly at messaging to the public but also speaking to local officialsโ€“the secretaries of state, attorneys general, governors who would be in the eye of the stormโ€“to let them know we wanted to help,โ€ says Gephardt, who worked his contacts in the private sector to put $20 million behind the effort.

Wamp, the former GOP Congressman, worked through the nonpartisan reform group Issue One to rally Republicans. โ€œWe thought we should bring some bipartisan element of unity around what constitutes a free and fair election,โ€ Wamp says. The 22 Democrats and 22 Republicans on the National Council on Election Integrity met on Zoom at least once a week. They ran ads in six states, made statements, wrote articles and alerted local officials to potential problems. โ€œWe had rabid Trump supporters who agreed to serve on the council based on the idea that this is honest,โ€ Wamp says. This is going to be just as important, he told them, to convince the liberals when Trump wins. โ€œWhichever way it cuts, weโ€™re going to stick together.โ€

The Voting Rights Lab and IntoAction created state-specific memes and graphics, spread by email, text, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok, urging that every vote be counted. Together, they were viewed more than 1 billion times. Protect Democracyโ€™s election task force issued reports and held media briefings with high-profile experts across the political spectrum, resulting in widespread coverage of potential election issues and fact-checking of Trumpโ€™s false claims. The organizationโ€™s tracking polls found the message was being heard: the percentage of the public that didnโ€™t expect to know the winner on election night gradually rose until by late October, it was over 70%. A majority also believed that a prolonged count wasnโ€™t a sign of problems. โ€œWe knew exactly what Trump was going to do: he was going to try to use the fact that Democrats voted by mail and Republicans voted in person to make it look like he was ahead, claim victory, say the mail-in votes were fraudulent and try to get them thrown out,โ€ says Protect Democracyโ€™s Bassin. Setting public expectations ahead of time helped undercut those lies.

The alliance took a common set of themes from the research Shenker-Osorio presented at Podhorzerโ€™s Zooms. Studies have shown that when people donโ€™t think their vote will count or fear casting it will be a hassle, theyโ€™re far less likely to participate. Throughout election season, members of Podhorzerโ€™s group minimized incidents of voter intimidation and tamped down rising liberal hysteria about Trumpโ€™s expected refusal to concede. They didnโ€™t want to amplify false claims by engaging them, or put people off voting by suggesting a rigged game. โ€œWhen you say, โ€˜These claims of fraud are spurious,โ€™ what people hear is โ€˜fraud,’โ€ Shenker-Osorio says. โ€œWhat we saw in our pre-election research was that anything that reaffirmed Trumpโ€™s power or cast him as an authoritarian diminished peopleโ€™s desire to vote.โ€

Podhorzer, meanwhile, was warning everyone he knew that polls were underestimating Trumpโ€™s support. The data he shared with media organizations who would be calling the election was โ€œtremendously usefulโ€ to understand what was happening as the votes rolled in, according to a member of a major networkโ€™s political unit who spoke with Podhorzer before Election Day. Most analysts had recognized there would be a โ€œblue shiftโ€ in key battlegroundsโ€“ the surge of votes breaking toward Democrats, driven by tallies of mail-in ballotsโ€“ but they hadnโ€™t comprehended how much better Trump was likely to do on Election Day. โ€œBeing able to document how big the absentee wave would be and the variance by state was essential,โ€ the analyst says.

PEOPLE POWER

The racial-justice uprising sparked by George Floydโ€™s killing in May was not primarily a political movement. The organizers who helped lead it wanted to harness its momentum for the election without allowing it to be co-opted by politicians. Many of those organizers were part of Podhorzerโ€™s network, from the activists in battleground states who partnered with the Democracy Defense Coalition to organizations with leading roles in the Movement for Black Lives.

The best way to ensure peopleโ€™s voices were heard, they decided, was to protect their ability to vote. โ€œWe started thinking about a program that would complement the traditional election-protection area but also didnโ€™t rely on calling the police,โ€ says Nelini Stamp, the Working Families Partyโ€™s national organizing director. They created a force of โ€œelection defendersโ€ who, unlike traditional poll watchers, were trained in de-escalation techniques. During early voting and on Election Day, they surrounded lines of voters in urban areas with a โ€œjoy to the pollsโ€ effort that turned the act of casting a ballot into a street party. Black organizers also recruited thousands of poll workers to ensure polling places would stay open in their communities.

The summer uprising had shown that people power could have a massive impact. Activists began preparing to reprise the demonstrations if Trump tried to steal the election. โ€œAmericans plan widespread protests if Trump interferes with election,โ€ Reuters reported in October, one of many such stories. More than 150 liberal groups, from the Womenโ€™s March to the Sierra Club to Color of Change, from Democrats.com to the Democratic Socialists of America, joined the โ€œProtect the Resultsโ€ coalition. The groupโ€™s now defunct website had a map listing 400 planned postelection demonstrations, to be activated via text message as soon as Nov. 4. To stop the coup they feared, the left was ready to flood the streets.

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS

About a week before Election Day, Podhorzer received an unexpected message: the U.S. Chamber of Commerce wanted to talk.

The AFL-CIO and the Chamber have a long history of antagonism. Though neither organization is explicitly partisan, the influential business lobby has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Republican campaigns, just as the nationโ€™s unions funnel hundreds of millions to Democrats. On one side is labor, on the other management, locked in an eternal struggle for power and resources.

But behind the scenes, the business community was engaged in its own anxious discussions about how the election and its aftermath might unfold. The summerโ€™s racial-justice protests had sent a signal to business owners too: the potential for economy-disrupting civil disorder. โ€œWith tensions running high, there was a lot of concern about unrest around the election, or a breakdown in our normal way we handle contentious elections,โ€ says Neil Bradley, the Chamberโ€™s executive vice president and chief policy officer. These worries had led the Chamber to release a pre-election statement with the Business Roundtable, a Washington-based CEOsโ€™ group, as well as associations of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, calling for patience and confidence as votes were counted.

But Bradley wanted to send a broader, more bipartisan message. He reached out to Podhorzer, through an intermediary both men declined to name. Agreeing that their unlikely alliance would be powerful, they began to discuss a joint statement pledging their organizationsโ€™ shared commitment to a fair and peaceful election. They chose their words carefully and scheduled the statementโ€™s release for maximum impact. As it was being finalized, Christian leaders signaled their interest in joining, further broadening its reach.

The statement was released on Election Day, under the names of Chamber CEO Thomas Donohue, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka, and the heads of the National Association of Evangelicals and the National African American Clergy Network. โ€œIt is imperative that election officials be given the space and time to count every vote in accordance with applicable laws,โ€ it stated. โ€œWe call on the media, the candidates and the American people to exercise patience with the process and trust in our system, even if it requires more time than usual.โ€ The groups added, โ€œAlthough we may not always agree on desired outcomes up and down the ballot, we are united in our call for the American democratic process to proceed without violence, intimidation or any other tactic that makes us weaker as a nation.โ€

SHOWING UP, STANDING DOWN

Election night began with many Democrats despairing. Trump was running ahead of pre-election polling, winning Florida, Ohio and Texas easily and keeping Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania too close to call. But Podhorzer was unperturbed when I spoke to him that night: the returns were exactly in line with his modeling. He had been warning for weeks that Trump votersโ€™ turnout was surging. As the numbers dribbled out, he could tell that as long as all the votes were counted, Trump would lose.

The liberal alliance gathered for an 11 p.m. Zoom call. Hundreds joined; many were freaking out. โ€œIt was really important for me and the team in that moment to help ground people in what we had already known was true,โ€ says Angela Peoples, director for the Democracy Defense Coalition. Podhorzer presented data to show the group that victory was in hand.

While he was talking, Fox News surprised everyone by calling Arizona for Biden. The public-awareness campaign had worked: TV anchors were bending over backward to counsel caution and frame the vote count accurately. The question then became what to do next.

The conversation that followed was a difficult one, led by the activists charged with the protest strategy. โ€œWe wanted to be mindful of when was the right time to call for moving masses of people into the street,โ€ Peoples says. As much as they were eager to mount a show of strength, mobilizing immediately could backfire and put people at risk. Protests that devolved into violent clashes would give Trump a pretext to send in federal agents or troops as he had over the summer. And rather than elevate Trumpโ€™s complaints by continuing to fight him, the alliance wanted to send the message that the people had spoken.

So the word went out: stand down. Protect the Results announced that it would โ€œnot be activating the entire national mobilization network today, but remains ready to activate if necessary.โ€ On Twitter, outraged progressives wondered what was going on. Why wasnโ€™t anyone trying to stop Trumpโ€™s coup? Where were all the protests?

Podhorzer credits the activists for their restraint. โ€œThey had spent so much time getting ready to hit the streets on Wednesday. But they did it,โ€ he says. โ€œWednesday through Friday, there was not a single Antifa vs. Proud Boys incident like everyone was expecting. And when that didnโ€™t materialize, I donโ€™t think the Trump campaign had a backup plan.โ€

Activists reoriented the Protect the Results protests toward a weekend of celebration. โ€œCounter their disinfo with our confidence & get ready to celebrate,โ€ read the messaging guidance Shenker-Osorio presented to the liberal alliance on Friday, Nov. 6. โ€œDeclare and fortify our win. Vibe: confident, forward-looking, unifiedโ€“NOT passive, anxious.โ€ The voters, not the candidates, would be the protagonists of the story.

The planned day of celebration happened to coincide with the election being called on Nov. 7. Activists dancing in the streets of Philadelphia blasted Beyoncรฉ over an attempted Trump campaign press conference; the Trumpersโ€™ next confab was scheduled for Four Seasons Total Landscaping outside the city center, which activists believe was not a coincidence. โ€œThe people of Philadelphia owned the streets of Philadelphia,โ€ crows the Working Families Partyโ€™s Mitchell. โ€œWe made them look ridiculous by contrasting our joyous celebration of democracy with their clown show.โ€

The votes had been counted. Trump had lost. But the battle wasnโ€™t over.

THE FIVE STEPS TO VICTORY

In Podhorzerโ€™s presentations, winning the vote was only the first step to winning the election. After that came winning the count, winning the certification, winning the Electoral College and winning the transitionโ€“steps that are normally formalities but that he knew Trump would see as opportunities for disruption. Nowhere would that be more evident than in Michigan, where Trumpโ€™s pressure on local Republicans came perilously close to workingโ€“and where liberal and conservative pro-democracy forces joined to counter it.

It was around 10 p.m. on election night in Detroit when a flurry of texts lit up the phone of Art Reyes III. A busload of Republican election observers had arrived at the TCF Center, where votes were being tallied. They were crowding the vote-counting tables, refusing to wear masks, heckling the mostly Black workers. Reyes, a Flint native who leads We the People Michigan, was expecting this. For months, conservative groups had been sowing suspicion about urban vote fraud. โ€œThe language was, โ€˜Theyโ€™re going to steal the election; there will be fraud in Detroit,โ€™ long before any vote was cast,โ€ Reyes says.

The alliance took a common set of themes from the research Shenker-Osorio presented at Podhorzerโ€™s Zooms. Studies have shown that when people donโ€™t think their vote will count or fear casting it will be a hassle, theyโ€™re far less likely to participate. Throughout election season, members of Podhorzerโ€™s group minimized incidents of voter intimidation and tamped down rising liberal hysteria about Trumpโ€™s expected refusal to concede. They didnโ€™t want to amplify false claims by engaging them, or put people off voting by suggesting a rigged game. โ€œWhen you say, โ€˜These claims of fraud are spurious,โ€™ what people hear is โ€˜fraud,’โ€ Shenker-Osorio says. โ€œWhat we saw in our pre-election research was that anything that reaffirmed Trumpโ€™s power or cast him as an authoritarian diminished peopleโ€™s desire to vote.โ€

Podhorzer, meanwhile, was warning everyone he knew that polls were underestimating Trumpโ€™s support. The data he shared with media organizations who would be calling the election was โ€œtremendously usefulโ€ to understand what was happening as the votes rolled in, according to a member of a major networkโ€™s political unit who spoke with Podhorzer before Election Day. Most analysts had recognized there would be a โ€œblue shiftโ€ in key battlegroundsโ€“ the surge of votes breaking toward Democrats, driven by tallies of mail-in ballotsโ€“ but they hadnโ€™t comprehended how much better Trump was likely to do on Election Day. โ€œBeing able to document how big the absentee wave would be and the variance by state was essential,โ€ the analyst says.

PEOPLE POWER

The racial-justice uprising sparked by George Floydโ€™s killing in May was not primarily a political movement. The organizers who helped lead it wanted to harness its momentum for the election without allowing it to be co-opted by politicians. Many of those organizers were part of Podhorzerโ€™s network, from the activists in battleground states who partnered with the Democracy Defense Coalition to organizations with leading roles in the Movement for Black Lives.

The best way to ensure peopleโ€™s voices were heard, they decided, was to protect their ability to vote. โ€œWe started thinking about a program that would complement the traditional election-protection area but also didnโ€™t rely on calling the police,โ€ says Nelini Stamp, the Working Families Partyโ€™s national organizing director. They created a force of โ€œelection defendersโ€ who, unlike traditional poll watchers, were trained in de-escalation techniques. During early voting and on Election Day, they surrounded lines of voters in urban areas with a โ€œjoy to the pollsโ€ effort that turned the act of casting a ballot into a street party. Black organizers also recruited thousands of poll workers to ensure polling places would stay open in their communities.

The summer uprising had shown that people power could have a massive impact. Activists began preparing to reprise the demonstrations if Trump tried to steal the election. โ€œAmericans plan widespread protests if Trump interferes with election,โ€ Reuters reported in October, one of many such stories. More than 150 liberal groups, from the Womenโ€™s March to the Sierra Club to Color of Change, from Democrats.com to the Democratic Socialists of America, joined the โ€œProtect the Resultsโ€ coalition. The groupโ€™s now defunct website had a map listing 400 planned postelection demonstrations, to be activated via text message as soon as Nov. 4. To stop the coup they feared, the left was ready to flood the streets.

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS

About a week before Election Day, Podhorzer received an unexpected message: the U.S. Chamber of Commerce wanted to talk.

The AFL-CIO and the Chamber have a long history of antagonism. Though neither organization is explicitly partisan, the influential business lobby has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Republican campaigns, just as the nationโ€™s unions funnel hundreds of millions to Democrats. On one side is labor, on the other management, locked in an eternal struggle for power and resources.

But behind the scenes, the business community was engaged in its own anxious discussions about how the election and its aftermath might unfold. The summerโ€™s racial-justice protests had sent a signal to business owners too: the potential for economy-disrupting civil disorder. โ€œWith tensions running high, there was a lot of concern about unrest around the election, or a breakdown in our normal way we handle contentious elections,โ€ says Neil Bradley, the Chamberโ€™s executive vice president and chief policy officer. These worries had led the Chamber to release a pre-election statement with the Business Roundtable, a Washington-based CEOsโ€™ group, as well as associations of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, calling for patience and confidence as votes were counted.

But Bradley wanted to send a broader, more bipartisan message. He reached out to Podhorzer, through an intermediary both men declined to name. Agreeing that their unlikely alliance would be powerful, they began to discuss a joint statement pledging their organizationsโ€™ shared commitment to a fair and peaceful election. They chose their words carefully and scheduled the statementโ€™s release for maximum impact. As it was being finalized, Christian leaders signaled their interest in joining, further broadening its reach.

The statement was released on Election Day, under the names of Chamber CEO Thomas Donohue, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka, and the heads of the National Association of Evangelicals and the National African American Clergy Network. โ€œIt is imperative that election officials be given the space and time to count every vote in accordance with applicable laws,โ€ it stated. โ€œWe call on the media, the candidates and the American people to exercise patience with the process and trust in our system, even if it requires more time than usual.โ€ The groups added, โ€œAlthough we may not always agree on desired outcomes up and down the ballot, we are united in our call for the American democratic process to proceed without violence, intimidation or any other tactic that makes us weaker as a nation.โ€

SHOWING UP, STANDING DOWN

Election night began with many Democrats despairing. Trump was running ahead of pre-election polling, winning Florida, Ohio and Texas easily and keeping Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania too close to call. But Podhorzer was unperturbed when I spoke to him that night: the returns were exactly in line with his modeling. He had been warning for weeks that Trump votersโ€™ turnout was surging. As the numbers dribbled out, he could tell that as long as all the votes were counted, Trump would lose.

The liberal alliance gathered for an 11 p.m. Zoom call. Hundreds joined; many were freaking out. โ€œIt was really important for me and the team in that moment to help ground people in what we had already known was true,โ€ says Angela Peoples, director for the Democracy Defense Coalition. Podhorzer presented data to show the group that victory was in hand.

While he was talking, Fox News surprised everyone by calling Arizona for Biden. The public-awareness campaign had worked: TV anchors were bending over backward to counsel caution and frame the vote count accurately. The question then became what to do next.

The conversation that followed was a difficult one, led by the activists charged with the protest strategy. โ€œWe wanted to be mindful of when was the right time to call for moving masses of people into the street,โ€ Peoples says. As much as they were eager to mount a show of strength, mobilizing immediately could backfire and put people at risk. Protests that devolved into violent clashes would give Trump a pretext to send in federal agents or troops as he had over the summer. And rather than elevate Trumpโ€™s complaints by continuing to fight him, the alliance wanted to send the message that the people had spoken.

So the word went out: stand down. Protect the Results announced that it would โ€œnot be activating the entire national mobilization network today, but remains ready to activate if necessary.โ€ On Twitter, outraged progressives wondered what was going on. Why wasnโ€™t anyone trying to stop Trumpโ€™s coup? Where were all the protests?

Podhorzer credits the activists for their restraint. โ€œThey had spent so much time getting ready to hit the streets on Wednesday. But they did it,โ€ he says. โ€œWednesday through Friday, there was not a single Antifa vs. Proud Boys incident like everyone was expecting. And when that didnโ€™t materialize, I donโ€™t think the Trump campaign had a backup plan.โ€

Activists reoriented the Protect the Results protests toward a weekend of celebration. โ€œCounter their disinfo with our confidence & get ready to celebrate,โ€ read the messaging guidance Shenker-Osorio presented to the liberal alliance on Friday, Nov. 6. โ€œDeclare and fortify our win. Vibe: confident, forward-looking, unifiedโ€“NOT passive, anxious.โ€ The voters, not the candidates, would be the protagonists of the story.

The planned day of celebration happened to coincide with the election being called on Nov. 7. Activists dancing in the streets of Philadelphia blasted Beyoncรฉ over an attempted Trump campaign press conference; the Trumpersโ€™ next confab was scheduled for Four Seasons Total Landscaping outside the city center, which activists believe was not a coincidence. โ€œThe people of Philadelphia owned the streets of Philadelphia,โ€ crows the Working Families Partyโ€™s Mitchell. โ€œWe made them look ridiculous by contrasting our joyous celebration of democracy with their clown show.โ€

The votes had been counted. Trump had lost. But the battle wasnโ€™t over.

THE FIVE STEPS TO VICTORY

In Podhorzerโ€™s presentations, winning the vote was only the first step to winning the election. After that came winning the count, winning the certification, winning the Electoral College and winning the transitionโ€“steps that are normally formalities but that he knew Trump would see as opportunities for disruption. Nowhere would that be more evident than in Michigan, where Trumpโ€™s pressure on local Republicans came perilously close to workingโ€“and where liberal and conservative pro-democracy forces joined to counter it.

It was around 10 p.m. on election night in Detroit when a flurry of texts lit up the phone of Art Reyes III. A busload of Republican election observers had arrived at the TCF Center, where votes were being tallied. They were crowding the vote-counting tables, refusing to wear masks, heckling the mostly Black workers. Reyes, a Flint native who leads We the People Michigan, was expecting this. For months, conservative groups had been sowing suspicion about urban vote fraud. โ€œThe language was, โ€˜Theyโ€™re going to steal the election; there will be fraud in Detroit,โ€™ long before any vote was cast,โ€ Reyes says.

BY MOLLY BALL 

Read Original Article on Time.com

The Thinking Conservative
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