Chart of the Day: America’s Economy Sinking Into Recession?

Contact Your Elected Officials
Right Wire Report Header

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) suffered a significantly worse-than-expected drop in December, tumbling 1.0% MoM (vs. -0.7% exp), and the 1.0% decline in November was revised down to a 1.1% drop.

  • The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was orders for non-defense capital goods ex aircraft at 0.02.
  • The biggest negative contributor was ISM new orders at -0.23.

This is the 10th straight monthly decline in the LEI (and 11th month of 12) –  the longest streak of declines since “Lehman” (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008). See this in the chart below and learn more here.

And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 6.04% – its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse. See this in the Chart below and learn more here.

The Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board, stated the following.

“There was widespread weakness among leading indicators in December, indicating deteriorating conditions for labor markets, manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market-related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. Nonetheless, industrial production – also a component of the CEI – fell for the third straight month. Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023.”

Despite the Conference Board’s report, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow continues to hold steady, though other indicators show that growth is steadily sinking.

  • The blue line is the base forecast. It is about all the public sees or hears about when the BEA releases its GDP reports, but it isn’t what matters most.
  • The red line is Real Final Sales (RFS). That is the bottom line estimate for the economy and what does matter most.
  • The yellow line is RFS to domestic buyers.
  • The green line is RFS to private domestic buyers. It excludes government and exports.

See this in the Chart below and learn more here.

President Joe Biden continues to tout his efforts on the Biden economy. He specifically touts a recent downturn in inflation and cherry-picks job numbers – see an alternative view here. Let’s not even talk about the real estate market – see here. See Biden’s most recent remarks in the video below.

The reality is that inflation is only down because the Fed has raised rates and is sending the US economy into recession – this is not economic growth due to actual genuine efforts of hard-working Americans. What will happen when the Fed stops its current interest rate cycle? It is merely putting money from the right to the left pocket and blowing smoke at the public who may not dig below the headlines.

By Tom Williams

Right Wire Report
Right Wire Reporthttps://rightwirereport.com/
Right Wire Report was a group of concerned citizens who took action to promote traditional values and work for a better America.

AI is Now an Existential Threat

We now see evidence that artificial intelligence is an existential threat to our future. It is coming to take American jobs!

With or without

The mullahs of Iran have been at war with the West, particularly the US, for half a century and Iran is also the world’s foremost champion of terrorism.

Artificial Intelligence Equals Awful Iniquities

WSJ article “AI is Learning to Escape Human Control” said in 79 of 100 trials, the o3 AI code systems edited their own code to prevent human shutdown!

VIDEO: Deranged Feminist vs. Mating Ducks in Epic Public Meltdown

A middle-aged white lady lib harasses mating ducks to “stop it!” because the rough sex they enjoy appears non-consensual on the part of the female.

RFK Jr. Slashes ALL U.S. Funding For Bill Gates’ Global ‘Vaccine Alliance’

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. recently pulled all U.S. government funding from Bill Gates’ Global ‘Vaccine Alliance’ GAVI.

Musk Again Wades Into Politics, Calls GOP Bill ‘Insane and Destructive’

“The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!” Musk wrote in a Saturday post on X.

Nevada Seen as Case Study in Rapid Urban Sprawl Amid a Water Crisis

Nevada’s rapidly growing population has reached a critical intersection with the region’s worsening water crisis, according to experts.

US Streamlines Rule for Fining Illegal Immigrants, Will Issue Nearly $1,000 Daily Fines for Noncompliance

DHS and DOJ announced a new joint federal rule that streamlines the process of issuing fines for illegal immigrants, making it easier and more efficient.

Man Indicted on 12 Hate Crime Charges in Attack on Boulder Demonstration for Israeli Hostages

Boulder, CO man accused of hurling Molotov cocktails at demonstrators supporting Israeli hostages indicted by grand jury on 12 hate crime counts.

Canada-US Trade Talks Will End Until ‘Certain Taxes’ Are Dropped, Trump Stresses

Trade discussions between Canada and the United States will end “until such time as they drop certain taxes,” U.S. President Trump said in an interview.

Trump Says US to Send Tariff Letters to Trade Partners Before July 9 Deadline

President Donald Trump said Sunday he will soon send letters to trading partners detailing the tariffs to be imposed on their exports to the United States.

Trump Says He Found a Buyer for TikTok

President Trump said he found a buyer for the Chinese-owned short video application TikTok, and that he will reveal the group in roughly two weeks.

Termination of ‘Wasteful Contracts’ Saves US Government $470 Million Last Week: DOGE

Over the past seven days, various government agencies have terminated 312 “wasteful contracts” with a ceiling value of $2.8 billion, the DOGE said.
spot_img

Related Articles