The Fed’s Doomsday Prophet Has a Dire Warning About Where We’re Headed

Contact Your Elected Officials
Politico Header

Thomas Hoenig knew what quantitative easing and record-low interest rates would bring.

Thomas Hoenig doesn’t look like a rebel. He is a conservative man, soft-spoken, now happily retired at the age of 75. He acts like someone who has spent the vast majority of his career, as he has, working at one of the stuffiest and powerful institutions in America: the Federal Reserve Bank. Hoenig has all the fiery disposition that one might expect from a central banker, which is to say none at all. He unspools sentences methodically, in a measured way, never letting his words race ahead of his intended message. When Hoenig gets really agitated he repeats the phrase “lookit” a lot, but that’s about as salty as it gets.

This makes it all the more surprising that Tom Hoenig is, in fact, one of America’s least-understood dissidents.

In 2010, Hoenig was president of the Federal Reserve regional bank in Kansas City. As part of his job, Hoenig had a seat on the Fed’s most powerful policy committee, and that’s where he lodged one of the longest-running string of “no” votes in the bank’s history.

Hoenig’s dissents are striking because the Fed’s top policy committee — called the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC — doesn’t just prize consensus; it nearly demands it. The committee likes to present a unified front to the public because it is arguably the most powerful governing body in American economic affairs. Hoenig’s string of dissents shattered that appearance of unanimity at a critically important time, when the Fed was expanding its interventions in the American economy to an unprecedented degree. It was a hinge point in American history, and the economy has never been the same since.

Between 2008 and 2014, the Federal Reserve printed more than $3.5 trillion in new bills. To put that in perspective, it’s roughly triple the amount of money that the Fed created in its first 95 years of existence. Three centuries’ worth of growth in the money supply was crammed into a few short years. The money poured through the veins of the financial system and stoked demand for assets like stocks, corporate debt and commercial real estate bonds, driving up prices across markets. Hoenig was the one Fed leader who voted consistently against this course of action, starting in 2010. In doing so, he pitted himself against the Fed’s powerful chair at the time, Ben Bernanke, who was widely regarded as a hero for the ambitious rescue plans he designed and oversaw.

Hoenig lost his fight. Throughout 2010, the FOMC votes were routinely 11 against one, with Hoenig being the one. He retired from the Fed in late 2011, and after that, a reputation hardened around Hoenig as the man who got it wrong. He is remembered as something like a cranky Old Testament prophet who warned incessantly, and incorrectly, about one thing: the threat of coming inflation.

But this version of history isn’t true. While Hoenig was concerned about inflation, that isn’t what solely drove him to lodge his string of dissents. The historical record shows that Hoenig was worried primarily that the Fed was taking a risky path that would deepen income inequality, stoke dangerous asset bubbles and enrich the biggest banks over everyone else. He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system.

On all of these points, Hoenig was correct. And on all of these points, he was ignored. We are now living in a world that Hoenig warned about.

The Fed is now in a vise. Inflation is rising faster than the Fed believed it would even a few months ago, with higher prices for gas, goods and automobiles being fueled by the Fed’s unprecedented money printing programs. This comes after years of the Fed steadily pumping up the price of assets like stocks and bonds through its zero-percent interest rates and quantitative easing during and after Hoenig’s time on the FOMC. To respond to rising inflation, the Fed has signaled that it will start hiking interest rates next year. But if that happens, there is every reason to expect that it will cause stock and bond markets to fall, perhaps precipitously, or even cause a recession.

“There is no painless solution,” Hoenig said in a recent interview. “It’s going to be difficult. And the longer you wait the more painful it will end up being.”

To be clear, the kind of pain that Hoenig is talking about involves high unemployment, social instability and potentially years of economic malaise. Hoenig knows this because he has seen it before. He saw it during his long career at the Fed, and he saw it most acutely during the Great Inflation of the 1970s. That episode in history, which bears eerie parallels with the situation today, is the lodestar that ended up guiding so much of Hoenig’s thinking as a Fed official. It explains why he was willing to throw away his reputation as a team player in 2010, why he was willing to go down in history as a crank and why he was willing to accept the scorn of his colleagues and people like Bernanke.

Hoenig voted no because he’d seen firsthand what the consequences were when the Fed got things wrong, and kept money too easy for too long.

By Christopher Leonard

Read Full Article on Politico.com

About Christopher Leonard

Christopher Leonard is a business reporter whose work has appeared in The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Fortune and Bloomberg Businessweek. He is the author of The Meat Racket and Kochland, which won the J. Anthony Lukas Work-in-Progress Award. His new book, The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy, is out January 11.

The Thinking Conservative
The Thinking Conservativehttps://www.thethinkingconservative.com/
The goal of THE THINKING CONSERVATIVE is to help us educate ourselves on conservative topics of importance to our freedom and our pursuit of happiness. We do this by sharing conservative opinions on all kinds of subjects, from all types of people, and all kinds of media, in a way that will challenge our perceptions and help us to make educated choices.

The Sacred Honor of the 56

Today we're celebrating the sacred honor of the 56 men who signed the Declaration of Independence.

Alligator Alcatraz: A Bold Step Toward Secure Borders

Alligator Alcatraz funded through FEMA, represents a decisive move by the Trump admin to address illegal immigration with efficiency and resolve.

Is America Broke?

Silicon Valley investor and economic commentator Balaji Srinivasan made...

Hungary: Pride™ Cometh Before the Color Revolution

The EU engaged in a diplomatic siege of the Eastern European nation-state of Hungary pressuring it into embrace global trannyism or face wrath of Brussels.

Understanding the Trump/Musk Feud

The passion Trump and Musk exhibit over the OBBB is not contrived or for show. Each is addressing the problem from completely different approaches.

Noem Waives Environmental Restrictions to Fast-Track Water Barriers in Rio Grande

DHS Sec Kristi Noem waived federal environmental laws to fast-track construction of 17 miles of waterborne barriers in the Rio Grande in South Texas.

Federal Officials Warn of ‘Lone Wolf’ Terror Threats on July 4, NY Governor Says

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul confirmed that federal officials informed her about a possible terrorist threat ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

Record 1 in 5 Buyers of New Cars Committing to $1,000-Plus Monthly Payments: Edmunds

The share of new car buyers committing to make monthly payments of $1,000 or more hit an “all-time high” in the second quarter of 2025.

US Economy Adds 147,000 New Jobs, Unemployment Rate Dips to 4.1 Percent in June

The U.S. job market remained strong in June, as labor conditions continued to hold up amid economic uncertainty.

US Keeps Pressure on Chinese Goods Amid Vietnam Trade Deal

Transshipping—rerouting goods through a third country to disguise the origin of the products—is a focal point of trade negotiations with Asian markets.

White House Report Reveals Top Earners, Staffers Working for No Salary

The Trump admin released its yearly report that shows the salaries for White House staffers, also revealing officials who aren’t accepting salaries at all.

Transportation Secretary Urges Governors to Remove Political Messages From Crosswalks, Intersections

Duffy sent letters to governors, mayor of D.C., and gov of Puerto Rico urging them to remove political messaging from intersections and crosswalks.

Bessent: US, India Near Agreement to Lower Tariffs

The United States and India are “very close” to a trade agreement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday.
spot_img

Related Articles