Havana is near collapse, with no relief offered by longtime ally Russia or biggest trading partner China. But the island nation has survived such crises before.
Cuba is on the verge of economic collapse, and there’s no immediate relief on tap from longtime patron Russia or Cuba’s biggest trading partner, China.
Its tenuous ties to nearby Mexico are likely to be severed soon, leaving the island nation seemingly out of options for replacing the discounted oil it imported from Venezuela to fuel its economy and provide the communist regime with hard currency.
But there is, perhaps, a solution being dangled by the oil’s new proprietor, the United States.
“There will be no more oil or money going to Cuba—Zero! I strongly suggest they make a deal, before it’s too late,” President Donald Trump wrote on Jan. 11 on Truth Social, mostly in all caps.
The president didn’t elaborate on what such a deal would entail, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose parents left Cuba for Florida in the 1950s, outlined a possible arrangement during a Jan. 9 White House meeting with oil executives.
“The people in control in Cuba have a choice to make,“ Rubio said. ”They can either have a real country with a real economy, where their people can prosper, or they can continue with their failing dictatorship that’s going to lead to systemic and societal collapse.”
Although Russia, Cuba’s staunchest ally for more than 60 years, and Cuba’s largest trading partners, China and Spain, have criticized the United States for seizing Venezuela’s oil, none has made a commitment to provide additional support for the island.
‘Things Falling Apart’
Because heavily discounted crude oil from Venezuela is now under the management of the Trump administration, since the Jan. 3 raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez’s choices are limited.
Cuba’s gross domestic product has declined 10 percent since 2019, according to the Cuban economy minister, Reuters reported. Its economy has shrunk by at least 15 percent since 2018, according to the Michigan Journal of Economics.
The average annual inflation rate has stood at more than 26 percent since 2005, according to the country’s official data.
Food, medicine, and fuel shortages are a fact of daily life.
More than 2.7 million Cubans—nearly a quarter of its population—have fled since 2020, according to a July 2024 report published by Columbia Law School.
Rolling blackouts often cripple its antiquated grid for hours, forcing “non-essential” workplaces and schools to close, straining its struggling agricultural and tourism industries, Cuban state-run news website Cubadebate reported.
Not only did Cuba import an average of 27,000 barrels of oil a day from Venezuela between January and November in 2025—according to shipping data and documents from Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA reported by Reuters—but also, Havana resold a significant percentage for much-needed cash.
In 2011, Cuba’s oil imports from Venezuela were 100,000 barrels a day, according to a 2015 report presented to the U.S. International Trade Commission by Cuba expert Jorge R. Piñon.
Often, in mid-sea transfers to shadow fleet tankers engaged in what the United States defines as the “illicit movement of sanctioned oil” to third-party buyers, mostly in China and India.
“So you’ve got all these things falling apart, and it gets to be connected with, ‘Well, OK, how long is the government of Cuba going to last?’” said Gregory Copley, president of the Washington-based International Strategic Studies Association and an opinion contributor to The Epoch Times.
“Like Venezuela, the answer to that is ‘not very long.’”
Cuba has survived decades of U.S.-imposed sanctions since Fidel Castro led a 1959 revolution that established communist rule.
Although there was widespread unrest in 2021 in response to food and fuel shortages, no organized opposition to the Díaz-Canel regime has materialized.
“We saw protests, but there were only 100 arrests, and it really wasn’t something big enough to overthrow the government,” said Anders Corr, publisher at Journal of Political Risk and another Epoch Times opinion contributor.
“So it’s difficult. I’m not sure that economic sanctions at the moment are able to do much,” he told The Epoch Times.
“Ultimately, it has to come from the people. They have to overthrow their government in Cuba, and the government in Cuba just seems to be propagandizing them.”
He said that because of such propaganda, many Cubans believe the United States is the source of all their woes.
By John Haughey
